This week the scorecard recommends buying JPY, AUD, and CAD while selling NOK, SEK, and GBP.
The JPY was the only currency in the G10 sphere to decline against the USD in the week ending Friday, September 13, and according to the model, the sell-off seems overdone. Moreover, due to the negative USD/JPY risk reversal, the input factor of option market positioning currently also favours a long JPY position. Hence, all in all, the scorecard recommends buying JPY again this week. The long basket also includes the AUD and the CAD this week. Some changes in input factors have been seen though, especially in the AUD where the input factors of market positioning and interest rates have become negative due to last week's decline in AUD/USD risk reversal, and a rise in short-term interest rates. All in all however, the model still recommends buying AUD.
Following last week's increase in Norwegian interest rates, this input factor favours being long NOK. However, last week's rally in NOK seems overdone according to the model and the scorecard recommends selling NOK this week. This week's short basket also includes SEK and GBP as most input factors favour being short these two currencies.
Last week's signals resulted in a 1.0% loss. The short JPY and the long NOK, positions performed well, while the short NZD position was expensive.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 23 September.
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