JPY And GBP Look Oversold, But Don't Go Against The Trend

Published 02/15/2013, 05:40 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

This week, we observe significant misalignments in EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD, all of which trade more than 2 standard deviations from our model estimates. However, we think that these signals have to be interpreted with caution as the market is likely to price in further monetary easing from both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. In the event of rising speculation of further monetary easing in the UK, model estimates will lag market developments. This has so far been the case with JPY, where our models have been lagging behind for several months. Moreover, none of the crosses are currently considered overbought or oversold according to our technical monitor and we would not go against these trends at this moment.
Spot deviations from model estimate

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