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Jobs' Details Better Than Headline

ByMarc Chandler
Published 01/04/2013, 11:13 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The US created a net 155k jobs in December, which was a bit disappointing to those who thought the ADP data was a reliable tell of a stronger number. However, the details were stronger than expected. These include a 0.1% increase in the average weekly hours and a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings, the largest of the year. Moreover, private sector jobs growth was stronger than the headline as the government sector shed 13k jobs.

The manufacturing sector added 25k of the private sector's 168k net new jobs. The manufacturing sector remains a key bright spot for the US economy. Upward revisions added another 38k jobs, which if added back to the headline, would be close to the 200k increase that some economists forecast.

In 2012, the US economy created 158.6k jobs on average per month. This is actually down slightly from the 175.4k monthly average in 2011.

The employment data is consistent with a rise in manufacturing output and should underpin income and perhaps to some extent consumption.

Separately, Canada strong employment report. The 39.8k net jobs created were almost 8-fold more than the Bloomberg consensus and even this understates a bit as 41.2k full time jobs were created. Proportionately this would be as if the US were to create about 400k jobs.

The dollar has seen its gains pared in the aftermath of the data, though the Canadian dollar is the only major that is higher on the day against the Us dollar and even this is marginally so. With the sharp downside momentum seen in recent days in the euro easing, position squaring could see a move toward $1.3050. Sterling has initial potential toward $1.6050-80. Yen seems poised to consolidate against the dollar and recoup some ground on the crosses.

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