A central market theme remains concerning the potential spill-over effect of the aggressive Japanese quantitative easing programme. It is still early days for the BoJ program, and it will take time before a clear pattern is established. Given the magnitude of BoJ intervention, we expect it to have a positive effect on European government bond markets over the coming quarters.
Data released overnight shows that during the last two weeks Japanese investors have switched to becoming net buyers of foreign bonds. Last week, they bought a net JPY310bn of foreign bonds and JPY204bn the week before. Japanese investors were also net buyers of foreign bonds last year.
One explanation for the net sales of foreign bonds during Q1 13 could be the need to rebalance portfolios ahead of the fiscal year-end. A weaker JPY implies that Japanese investors' funds have ceteris paribus increased the share of foreign securities in investment portfolios.
The most recent detailed data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance (March) confirms that Japanese investors remained net buyers of euro area government bonds in March, and net sellers of U.S. Treasuries. French government bonds in paritcular were popular among Japanese investors last year, although this share has been decreasing recently, while purchases of bonds from the Netherlands and Austria have increased.
Japanese investors' net purchases of peripherals up until March were very limited. Investors have switched from being net sellers to broadly neutral.
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