News reports of Janet Yellen’s forthcoming nomination will be greeted well by market agents. It should be. They will assume a continuation of the Bernanke policy. They will also assume gradualism when it comes to Fed tapering which is now likely to be delayed because of the budget, debt-limit fight’s damage to the US economy. The US economic recovery is losing steam daily.
Yellen is highly skilled, seasoned and a veteran of the financial crisis. She certainly does not want another one to occur on her watch as chair of the Federal Reserve.
Any market calming effect will be short lived. Markets are focused on the political fight and are also sensitive to the damage each day of the political fight does to the US economy. Yellen knows this. She cannot do anything about it except to proceed slowly on any tapering policy.
So Fed policy becomes more predictable with the announcement of her appointment while Congress and the White House continue to add fuel to the fire that burns the modern day version of Rome which we call Washington.
We remain with a cash reserve on the sidelines. We like Janet Yellen and wish her well. She cannot fix the dysfunction at the other side of the Washington where the congressional fight with White House continues.
BY David R. Kotok