Market movers today
As the Brexit end-game has started, we have published an update this morning looking at the status of the negotiations, what the possible outcomes are, what the biggest obstacles are and what we expect of the economy and GBP. For details, see Brexit Monitor: Get ready for the end game, 27 September.
The big event today will be Italy publishing growth, debt and deficit projections for 2019. We expect 2019 to land somewhere between 2.0-2.4% of GDP, i.e. not violating EU rules. The budget is likely to include some kind of tax reforms and citizen income, but policies are likely to be phased in only gradually or implemented by tweaking some already existing schemes in order to avoid the deficit breaching EU rules. For details see Italian Politics Monitor: A postcard from Rome: the die is cast! , 12 September.
Overnight in China, we will get the Caixin PMI manufacturing for September. PMI has held up surprisingly well despite the trade war and sharp decline in stock markets and metal markets. However, we see clear downside risk as other data also points to a slowdown. We expect a decline to 50.3 in September from 50.6 in August.
Overnight in Japan , we will get data releases on the labour market regarding the unemployment rate and jobs/applicants ratio for August. The labour market has turned increasingly tight in recent years and we have seen signs that this is pushing up wages. It will be interesting to see if pressures continue to increase.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: