The recent lift in the price of gold off the recent lows has given the bulls some hope as the prospect of a rate rise diminishes. With a big week ahead, is the lift merely a dead cat bounce, or is gold actually turning bullish?
Gold rose sharply over the last week as the Chinese devaluation of the yuan led many to question whether the US will raise interest rates or not. The race to the bottom in the currency wars saw the PBOC lop 4.6% off the value of the yuan. US imports from China will now be cheaper which is not such a good thing as the Federal Reserve is trying to raise interest rates in a time of near zero inflation, and a weaker yuan makes that outlook gloomier.
The week ahead will be a very important one for gold’s outlook. Most importantly we have the FOMC meeting minutes being released. This could hint at whether or not the Fed will raise rates and gold traders will be picking over every word.
We also have CPI figures due tomorrow, which are arguably more important that the FOMC minutes. Even though it is a lagging indicator, and does not include the depreciated yuan, it will likely include the recent slide in oil prices and 0.2% m/m is optimistic in my opinion. Also keep an eye on Unemployment Claims, the manufacturing index, and the building figures. Certainly this week will set the tone for the weeks leading into the September 18 FOMC meeting and could see gold remain bullish if the data misses.
Gold has retraced back to the 23.6% Fibonacci level (from the January swing high candle) where it has found resistance. With the data looking to shape up the way it is, we could see an attack on this level and a charge up to the 38.2% level. Look for the 100 day MA to act as resistance here if gold does break out to the upside.
The reason gold broke through the six year lows in the first place was because the market believed the Fed would raise interest rates in September. That outlook certainly has changed and with the looming trouble in the Chinese economy, it is very likely gold is pushing higher because of fundamental reasons and not just a dead cat bounce.