Moody's altered Ireland's rating outlook to stable from negative after market close on Friday. Moody's kept the rating unchanged at Ba1. Hence, Moody's is still lagging both S&P and Fitch who both have Ireland on BBB+.
The motivation behind the revision is broad based. Moody's points to, "the Irish government's progress in restoring solvency to its public finances" and "Ireland's diminished susceptibility to renewed loss of access to financial markets".
The key issue for Ireland in Q4 will be its exit from the EU programme, and its return to full market access. Along with Moody's we expect the Irish government to request an ESM precautionary of €10 billion (as has also been indicated by the Irish government). This, combined with OMT eligibility, will serve as backstop facilities as Ireland becomes the first country to exit a Troika programme and return to full market access. We expect Ireland will return to market around year-end with another syndicated issuance.