Inflation remains a major concern for central banks and recent data highlights how far there is to go, something policymakers will be hoping changes very soon.
A major headache for the Bank of England
There’s no getting away from another rate hike from the BoE next month after inflation unexpectedly remained above 10% in March. This followed the labor market report on Tuesday which showed wages also remaining stubbornly higher, a combination that will make justifying not hiking very difficult for the central bank.
While inflation is still expected to fall sharply over the course of the year, likely beginning over the next couple of months, it won’t come soon enough to give the MPC something to point towards to warrant ending the tightening cycle.
The fact that the economy has also avoided a recession and could do so again this year could also support demand and cast doubt over the level of decline in inflation that was expected, supporting the case for more hikes. Markets are fully pricing in a hike in May with another then priced in for June and a final one – taking the base rate to 5% – before the end of the year. That may prove overly hawkish once inflation starts falling but at this point in time, it’s hard to argue against tightening continuing.
Is bitcoin still correlated with other markets?
Bitcoin is very choppy at the start of the week, fluctuating above and below $30,000, a big psychological level it broke back above last week. There’s seemingly no loss of enthusiasm for cryptos despite changing dynamics elsewhere in the markets which suggests weakening correlations but that may change as the dust settles.