The latest IMM data covers the week from 28 July to 4 August 2015.
IMM positioning data released on Friday reveal a continuation in the buildup of speculative long USD positions. Last week marked the fifth consecutive week of net long builds, which has sent non-commercial 'greenback' positioning to its highest level since early June (96th percentile). Notably, the bullish USD positions added last week were very broad based across different currencies and marked the largest single week's bullish buildup in nine weeks.
Fundamentally, we also expect a stronger USD in the coming months. However, we emphasize that we expect the next leg lower in EUR/USD to be driven by a significant re-pricing of Fed monetary policy which should drive an increase in the market-implied probability of a September Fed hike (currently roughly 50%). As recent weeks have illustrated, market participants have been quick to take profit following strong US data. Consequently, we think the September Fed meeting needs to be nearer before we can see the next substantial trend lower in EUR/USD. We target the cross at 1.04 in 3M.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below