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Interesting Developments: The USD/JPY Makes The Headlines

ByIan Copsey
Published 06/04/2013, 01:06 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

There were quite a few notable moments yesterday but the USD/JPY was the headliner. I was not entirely comfortable with how the structure was developing in the approach to the triangle high. The hourly bullish divergence had broken, and 4-hour momentum wan't providing any signal whatsoever. The subsequent sharp drop sealed its fate, implying that the 103.30 high was indeed the Wave -iii- as I had originally forecast and the mini pullback and follow-through were the Wave -iv- and -v- respectively. This was a mere pimple at the top of the entire rally from 75.57. We should now have two months to a major low. Having said that, there should be a pullback higher beforehand.

Clearly this is going to impact EUR/JPY as well. It has finally broken down following the big, fat triangle and then from Friday through yesterday a smaller one that should now also see follow-through. Indeed, the cross may well be the more bearish of the two, with EUR/USD now very close to its corrective peak.

The Europeans saw the anticipated Dollar losses that actually followed through to the broad downside targets. I sense that while the GBP/USD and USD/CHF may well have seen their extremes. The Dollar Index reached the 82.45 area I noted as the target, but I am not quite so sure about the EUR/USD. I tend to feel the pair has not seen its top, and this could be the pointer for the day. Corrections in the other two but a reversal in EUR/USD seems to be one more push away.

Thus, in the next higher picture the Dollar should soon resume its uptrend.

The Aussie… why does it have to do things differently? Having moved higher and I would prefer that it to make another new high along with the euro, but before long the downside should resume again.

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