This matters......a lot:
And here's another look at Bond fund flows of late/very similar time frame:
And here's a look at Credit Suisse's Fixed Income Risk appetite gauge:
Short term, I believe rates have overshot. Longer term, I think this is evidence that the Fed can't stop their MBS/Treasury purchases anytime soon.
Global markets are on edge. Chinese markets came unglued last night -- plunging about 6% and it's now VERY near multi year lows. It will be interesting to see how the Shanghai composite and Copper trade at these levels (around 2,150 and $3.00 respectively).
The VIX (cash) traded JUST BELOW the 52-week highs (made on 12/28). The Month 1 v. Month 2 futures spread is NOT inverted (panic may be abating).
Watch -- THE BONDS. Copper, Brent Crude at 100, and the VIX. The S&Ps are now 7% off recent highs.
Consider: Selling Mo 1 VIX v. Buying Month 2 VIX around EVEN.
Consider: Selling August OTM put/put spreads in RBOB or getting Long Aug RB v. Short Aug Heating Oil.
Consider: Selling short dated OTM puts/put spreads in the Bonds. I would not be surprised to hear NY Fed -- Dudley strike a decidedly DOVISH tone when he speaks at 9AM Chicago time on Weds.
Calendar:
**Charts from Sober Look, Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance**
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Interest Rates Spike On Emerging-Market Flight
Published 06/24/2013, 11:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Interest Rates Spike On Emerging-Market Flight
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