In Sweden , the week ahead contains little data of acute relevance. We, nonetheless, find it interesting that the monthly government net lending (budget balance) (published Tuesday, at 09:30 CEST) has been some SEK18bn better over the past three months (the latest SNDO forecast was published three months ago).
We recommend to buy the SGB May '25 asset swapped on lower supply of SGBs.
We take a closer look at the Swedish inflation outlook for September and onwards. We argue that September data will mark the start of an upward trend that is expected to continue up until March next year.
The Swedish National debt Office proposes a lower FX exposure but it will have little impact on EUR/SEK spot.
In Norway we expect core inflation, CPI-ATE, to have climbed to 2.7% in September. Weaker activity in the oil sector is now visible in the numbers and we expect industrial production to have dropped 1.0% m/m in August.
The week will also bring the first 'independent' budget from the Solberg government. The actual non-oil deficit will provide an idea of how many kroner Norges Bank will need to buy on behalf of the oil fund next year.
Norges Bank will once again tap in the NGB Feb '24. We look for decent demand at the auction given the modest size (NOK3bn) and the relative attractive yield level compared to euro zone yields and the constructive outlook for the NOK.
In Denmark , it is time for inflation and industrial production numbers. FX intervention by the Danish Central Bank in September supports our call for an independent Danish rate cut in Q4.
The Danish Debt Office will tap the 1.75% Nov '25 and the 4.50% Nov '39. We expect good demand especially for the 10y bond.
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