In Sweden focus will be on the labour force survey, where we expect a slight deterioration of the unemployment rate due to seasonal reasons. Focus will also turn to inflation and inflation expectations. We have again a below-Riksbank forecast for underlying inflation.
In Norway the foreign trade numbers for September will include the quarterly price and volume indices for exports and imports. Prices for imported consumer goods (at the border) could give us a clearer picture of what we can expect from import prices (in the stores) in the coming months. The Norwegian krone's weakening over the summer points to a further rise in these prices.
Norges Bank's bank lending survey for Q3 should reveal how weaker growth prospects, market turmoil and slightly higher funding costs have affected the credit policies of banks.
Norges Bank will tap the bond market on Wednesday. We are for a change a bit cautious with the long end of the curve in Norway and currently recommend to pay NOK swap 5y5y versus Sweden. Not least, after the expansionary budget last week.
In Denmark we expect the CPI data to show inflation of 0.3% m/m and 0.5% y/y in September, against -0.3% m/m and 0.5% y/y in August. The August numbers surprised to the downside, so we expect some of the lost ground to be made up in September.
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