In Sweden, the week ahead is all about 'super Wednesday', when both Prospera's wage and inflation survey and February inflation are due to be published.
As for inflation expectations, we refrain from making a numerical forecast, but note that expectations tend to move in the same direction as the latest inflation outcome. This implies a risk of expectations remaining the same or even rising.
On inflation, we expect outcomes (CPI and CPIF) slightly above the Riksbank's expectations. We have a 0.8% y/y forecast for CPIF. Whatever the outcomes, we should prepare for a day with high volatility and strong shifts in market expectations.
The Swedish Debt Office will tap the 7-Year and 10-Year government bonds for SEK4bn.
In Norway, we expect the annual rate of core inflation to be unchanged at 2.4% in February, quite simply because prices did not fall as far as expected in January, which will probably have an impact on the February data. Our forecast is in line with Norges Bank's projections in its December monetary policy report, so there should not be any market impact if we are right.
Norges Bank will probably introduce a new 10-Year NGB benchmark on Wednesday. Given the recent underperformance of NGBs versus bunds, we look for good demand at the auction.
In Denmark we expect the headline inflation number to increase to 0.2% y/y, from -0.1% y/y in January. The increase should be seen partly in the light of average prices for petrol and diesel being 5% higher in February than in January, while German data have shown that food prices edged up in February rather than falling as they usually do. We still like Danish linkers despite recent underperformance versus German linkers.
The week also sees foreign trade figures for January. We expect a current account surplus of around DKK11.5bn, which is not far off December's DKK12.0bn and is still a high level, buoyed by both a strong trade surplus and net income from abroad.
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