India Oilseeds Complex Weighs Down On Selling Pressure: April 19, 2012

Soybean prices ended lower on yesterday's trading session at Rs.3233 for May contract down by 1.66%. However, positive movement was noticed on CBOT platform where May futures ended at 1407.75 levels up by 0.71%.

Soy oil prices have dropped in the last trading session. With increasing selling pressure in the oil and oilseed complex, the soy oil prices witnessed a downward movement. May future soy oil prices ended at Rs. 758.6 marking a decline by 0.77 per cent while in CBOT May futures ruled higher at 55.61 levels up by 0.56%.

Mustard seed prices have dropped on increased selling pressure in the commodity. May futures were lower by 2.25% to Rs.3866. We are expecting some more correction even today for these commodity prices. Looking at the above scenario we believe one can take a strategy of selling at higher levels.

NCDEX Soybean Trades Lower On Profit Taking

NCDEX soybean futures traded  lower (down 1.5% as compared to previous close) on account of profit taking after yesterday’s gain. Weakness in overseas market and improved  arrivals of soybean in domestic mandis are also added bearish  market sentiments. 

Arrivals in major mandis were 40000 bags in  Madhya Pradesh, 35,000 bags in Maharashtra and 1000 bags in  Rajasthan (1 bag=100 kg).  

As per WASDE (USDA), global oilseed  production for 2011/12 is projected at 440.6 million tons, down 5.2  million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are projected  at 55.5 million tons, down 1.8 million from last month, and down  13.6 million tons from last year.  

As per Oil World forecasts,  Argentina's 2012 soybean crop at 44.0 million tonnes, down from  49.2 million in 2011. Brazil's crop is forecast at 65.0 million tonnes from 75.3 million tonnes in 2011. 

NCDEX RM Seed Tumbles On Arrival Pressure

NCDEX May mustard seed futures traded  lower (down 2.25%) on account of profit taking after yesterday’s gain. Arrival pressure and losses in other oilseeds and edible oil also  added bearish market sentiments. 

As per COOIT, the country's  rapeseed output is estimated to drop by 12.6 percent to 6.03 million  tonnes in the year to June 2012. The overall rabi (Nov-March)  oilseed crop for 2011-12 is estimated to fall to 8.79 million tonnes  from 9.87 million tonnes last year, with a drop in sown area from  9.72 million hectares last year to 9.07 million ha this time. 

RM seed meal shipments during the finance year 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) were  1,171,895 tonnes (value Rs. 1028.30 cr),  up by 25 per cent from  9,36,238 tonnes (value Rs. 972.73 cr) a year ago.