As expected, US growth contracted sharply in Q4 2012, declining 0.1% after expanding 3.1% and 1.3% in the two previous quarters. Temporary factors that had fuelled the 3.1% increase in Q2 GDP gave way to a correction (chart 1). Looking beyond expected stock adjustments, which cut 1.2 points from growth, the decline in GDP can be attributed to much sharper-than-expected cutbacks in public spending, down 6.6% (after +13.3%), due to a 25.1% drop off in military spending (vs. +15.1% in Q3). Corporate investment declined 1.8% in Q3 due to a wait-and-see approach to fiscal uncertainty, but rebounded 8.4% in Q4. Household consumption was also up 2.2%, building on a 1.6% increase the previous quarter. The solidity of residential investment was confirmed by a 15.3% increase, following increases of 13.6% and 8.4% in the previous quarters.
Despite a 1% decline in December, existing home sales rose at an annualised rate of 23% in Q4, with house stocks accounting for 4.4 months of sales, down from 4.8 months in November and 5.3 months in October. New home sales increased 7% on an annualised basis in Q4, with stocks accounting for 4.9 months of sales in December. This argues for an ongoing rebound in construction and real estate prices. The NAHB index picked up strongly to 47 in December (vs. 14 in September 2011), while foreclosures accounted for only 11.8% of sales in December 2012, down from 19% in the year earlier period. The S & P / Case-Shiller house price index for the 20 largest metropolitan areas continued to rise, up 5.5% in the year to November, compared to 4.2% in October and 3% in September.
BY Philippe D'ARVISENET
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