The latest IMM data cover the week from 4 to 11 February 2014.
IMM positioning data released last Friday showed that non-commercial FX positioning in the week to 11 February saw no large movements. Measured in percentage of open interest the largest move was seen in the EUR where short positions were unwound corresponding to a 2.4 percentage point move (see page 2). Speculators remain EUR short in the absolute sense, albeit only a modest 2.5 percent of open interest.
Non-commercial GBP-positioning was virtually unchanged and remains in neutral territory. This suggests that positioning does not pose a barrier for a further move higher in GBP-spot. Note that on Friday 14 February we published FX Forecast Update: Sterling set to shine in 2014 , where we argue that fundamentals and relative monetary policy point to a stronger GBP. Most notably through a move lower in the EUR/GBP.
Speculators added net-short positions in CHF and JPY for the first time in four and six weeks respectively. Non-commercial CHF-positioning is now neutral in absolute sense (at the 60th percentile), while JPY positioning remains in stretched short territory (at the 10th percentile).
Speculators are still very short AUD, CAD, RUB and MXN at the 1st, 5th, 1st and 10th percentile respectively. Investors remain stretched long USD.
In commodities further net-shorts were unwound in wheat and corn. Non-commercial corn-positioning is now long in absolute sense – not seen since mid July. Investors added net-shorts in copper for the third consecutive week and copper-positioning has not been this short since mid December. Speculators unwound Brent Crude longs but positioning in the black gold remains stretched.
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