The latest IMM data covers the week from 5 August to 11 August 2015.
USD longs were added again in the week to 11 August: this time round it was JPY and CHF in particular that saw large amounts of shorting. Thus, the yen is again in stretched short territory on historical metrics. The Swissie has taken a significant jump in a more bearish direction following the latest uptick in EUR/CHF, suggesting investors are seeing the Greek relief rally in the safe-haven currency as coming to an end.
The shift in Chinese exchange-rate policy towards a more market-determined rate came just before the cut-off for the latest IMM data. While the release does firmly cover many Asian currencies data, we note that AUD positioning was little changed on the week and speculators covered shorts in NZD, suggesting investors do not seem to envisage a currency war leading to sustained weakness down under. However, it is likely the addition of JPY shorts was caused (at least partly) by CNY weakness last week.
Although oil prices remain under pressure, non-commercial positioning in crude oil actually rose for a second consecutive week and is closing in on stretched territory. In contrast, the omnipresent worries regarding Chinese growth continues to feed through to copper where positioning is now stretched on shorts. While we see a clear risk of a another dip in oil prices, we stress that a stabilisation and gradual uptick should be in store for Q4 (see also Commodities Update: Oil in troubled waters as price anchor pulled , 13 August).
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