IMM data released last Friday showed that the biggest change in non-commercial positioning in the week to 6 May was seen in JPY where investors slashed net shorts. The move was driven by the Japanese central bank meeting on 30 April where BoJ disappointed investors speculating about more short-term easing. Measured in percentage of open interest, it was the third-largest single week bullish build of 2014, sending non-commercial JPY-positioning above the 16th percentile - a level not seen since June 2013. Consequently positioning data suggests that JPY has become markedly more sensitive to the downside.
Friday's report also showed that investors bought EUR and sold USD ahead of the ECB meeting last week. Overall, speculative accounts remain net long EUR and net short USD, which leaves plenty of space for further downside in the cross from a positioning point of view.
Noteworthy the week to 6 May also saw a considerable unwinding of CHF net longs. The move reflects a combination of the above-mentioned bullish builds in EUR ahead of the ECB meeting and a slight fall in geopolitical risks. In a historical perspective, non-commercial CHF positioning still seems stretched long at the 81st percentile although markedly less so compared with the previous seven weeks' positioning in CHF.
In commodities, speculative positioning saw a considerable unwinding of net longs in copper, soybeans and Brent Crude. While the moves sent speculative positioning in the latter two away from historically stretched long levels, non-commercial copper positioning now seems increasingly stretched short. Consequently, positioning indicates that the copper price has become more sensitive to positive news out of China. In the week to 6 May, investors added bullish builds in gold for the third consecutive week. Despite this move, speculative gold positioning remains in neutral territory.
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