The latest IMM data covers the week from 3 to 10 June 2014.
IMM data released last Friday showed a continuation of bearish EUR builds. This week's move reflects ECB easing on 5 June and speculators have now added net EUR shorts in 10 out of the past 12 weeks. Consequently non-commercial EUR positioning has in this period moved from the bullish 71st percentile to historically stretched short levels at the 15th percentile. However, as pointed out, the stretched bearish EUR sentiment may in the short run be a barrier for a stronger pace lower in EUR/USD and suggests that the sensitivity of the cross is skewed to the upside.
Friday's report also showed yet another week of diverging AUD and CAD positioning with investors adding net AUD longs and net CAD shorts. While non-commercial AUD positioning is at its most bullish levels since April 2013 (see page 7), the equivalent CAD positioning is still close to historically stretched short levels (see page 6).
In commodities, speculators added net longs in Oil, reflecting the increased geopolitical risks in Iraq. As a result, speculative positioning in the black gold is now at its most bullish levels since February 2014.
We note that investors also added net shorts in Copper, Corn, Wheat and Soybeans in the week to 10 June. Non-commercial copper positioning has moved towards stretched short levels as a result, indicating an increased sensitivity of the copper price towards positive news out of China.
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