The latest IMM data covers the week from 25 March to 2 April.
Investor views remain broadly unchanged: short JPY, short GBP and short EUR. The bearish yen and sterling view is based on expectations of continued substantial central bank balance sheet expectations, which are also likely to be met. The bearish euro view on the other hand is based on expectations of a refi rate cut (that may not come), a rise in European sovereign risks (that is fading again) and a record growth divergence (that may have peaked in Q1). Hence, euro shorts are likely to be more vulnerable than both yen and sterling shorts.
Short CAD positions at 2009 levels: Non-commercial investors added slightly to net short CAD positions, which have now reached 40% of open interest - the peak from early 2009. It is worth noting that the peak in CAD shorts was followed by a strong CAD rally in both 2007 and 2009.
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