The latest IMM data covers the week from 13 to 20 May 2014.
The IMM data released on Friday revealed yet another build in short speculative EUR positions in the week ending 20 May. The build in short positions came after a significant build in the same direction the week before. The move in EUR positions reflects the growing expectation that the ECB will ease monetary policy next week.
However, that said, positioning still does not pose a barrier for further EUR/USD downside. Speculative short EUR/USD positions are still not at a level that we would consider as being stretched. Hence, further downside to EUR/USD is still possible from a positioning perspective if the ECB actually surprises the market next week.
In general we saw a build in aggregated USD positions last week. In particular, the dollar was bought against EUR, AUD and MXN.
The week to 20 May also saw a unwinding of CHF net longs for the fourth consecutive week. As a result, non-commercial CHF positioning no longer looks stretched long. The move is remarkable given the speculation regarding negative EUR rates but probably reflects the continued performance of eurozone peripheral bonds, further undermining the demand for safe-haven currencies.
In commodities, speculators added net longs in Oil and Copper. The move probably reflects improved growth optimism and renewed investor appetite for e.g. EM exposure.
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