AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7227; (P) 0.7270; (R1) 0.7301;
Despite spiking to 0.7314, AUD/USD quickly reversed from there. Subsequent breach of 0.7228 support turned resistance suggests that whole corrective rebound from 0.7084 has completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.7143 support first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. On the upside, in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.54; (P) 112.83; (R1) 113.04;
USD/JPY lost momentum ahead of 113.17 key near term resistance. A temporary top is in place at 113.13 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations would now be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 113.17 will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next. Nonetheless, break of 111.82 will extend the consolidation pattern from 113.17 with another decline.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.
