The US Dollar traded almost unchanged on Thursday against other major currencies, with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.09% lower. The Russian Ruble (RUB) fell to its lowest level against the Dollar in more than two years over concerns about additional US sanctions possibly targeting the country’s financial system.
Oil closed again lower despite lower crude oil stockpiles, as the EIA also reported that gasoline and distillate stockpiles were unexpectedly higher this week.
Equities traded mixed with most indices again showing losses as the market faces trade uncertainty over trade policies of the US and the downturn in emerging markets.
After the rapid sell-off in cryptocurrencies on Wednesday, the market seemingly stabilized with Bitcoin stabilizing below the $6,500 level. Kraken, which is one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges announced that it would lay off 57 of its San Francisco based client services employees, which was announced as a cost-saving measure. Market statistics indicate that cryptocurrency trading
volumes in Dollar value have significantly decreased since the rally last year.
On Friday the EU will release its GDP statistic, the US its NFP and Unemployment Rate statistics. In Canada also the Unemployment Rate and Ivey Purchasing Managers Index will be released. On Saturday then Japan will publish its GDP data.
The Pound continued a modest recovery against the Dollar over optimism that an agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom can still be reached before the Brexit deadline. However there are warnings, that should the UK fail to reach an agreement before Brexit in March next year, it could face the “worst domestic political turmoil since the Second World War” according Ivan Rogers, who was at one point Britain’s chief EU diplomat.
The Dollar only gave away small margins as trade frictions still remain in focus of investors and fundamental data was mostly on target.
On Friday in the UK the Halifax House Price Index will be released.
Pivot:1.2895Support:1.28951.2871.284Resistance:1.2951.29851.3025Scenario 1:long positions above 1.2895 with targets at 1.2950 & 1.2985 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.2895 look for further downside with 1.2870 & 1.2840 as targets.Comment:even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Europe 50
European equity indices were under pressure for the third consecutive day as markets face uncertainty over the trade standoff with the US and downturn in emerging markets.
German Manufacturers’ Orders were reported unexpectedly lower at -0.9% m/m for July (expected +2.1%), while the Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gained more than expected 3.4% y/y (expected +2.4%) in Q2.
German (-4.22%) pharmaceutical and chemical company Bayer (DE:BAYGN) fell to the lowest level in 5 years as the company now faces around 9,000 lawsuits in the US due to business activities of its recently acquired ‘Crop Science’ company Monsanto (NYSE:MON).
European economies will also release significant fundamental data on Friday, with Germany and France publishing Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade statistics, Italy its Retail Sales data and the EU its GDP.
Pivot:3329Support:329232703260Resistance:332933413363Scenario 1:short positions below 3329.00 with targets at 3292.00 & 3270.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 3329.00 look for further upside with 3341.00 & 3363.00 as targets.Comment:as long as the resistance at 3329.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 3292.00 remains high. The RSI failed to push above its resistance zone at 50%.
WTI Oil
Oil dipped on Thursday despite the announcement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that crude oil stockpiles were down by 4.3 million barrels compared to last week. This drop is more significant that the one reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which reported on Wednesday stockpiles lower by 1.2 million barrels. A possible driver for the lower prices are the increases in gasoline inventories, which were up by 1.8 million barrels and distillate inventories, which were reported up by 3.1 million barrels. Both increases were significantly above the market expectations.
On Friday the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count will be released, which will indicate the amount of operating oil rigs.
Pivot:68.4Support:67.56766.5Resistance:68.46969.5Scenario 1:short positions below 68.40 with targets at 67.50 & 67.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 68.40 look for further upside with 69.00 & 69.50 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
US 500
US equities traded mixed on Thursday, with economic data also showing mixed results. Nonfarm Productivity was reported unchanged at 2.9% for Q2 (below the expected 3.0%), while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index unexpectedly rose to 58.5 (expected 56.8).
The biggest losses were seen in the chip (US Semiconductors ETF -2.54%) and energy sector (US Energy ETF (NYSE:XLE) -1.84%).
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) (-2.40%) closed at the end of the trading session lower, despite earnings per share at $4.98 surpassing market expectations.
Snapchat (-3.27%) further extended its losses, falling below the $10 threshold for the first time in the stock’s history. Other social media companies are also facing pressure with Twitter (-5.93%) closing again significantly lower.
Traders will focus on the monthly economic statistics with significant importance, such as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate.
Pivot:2884.5Support:2867.7528572840Resistance:2884.528932901Scenario 1:short positions below 2884.50 with targets at 2867.75 & 2857.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 2884.50 look for further upside with 2893.00 & 2901.00 as targets.Comment:a break below 2867.75 would trigger a drop towards 2857.00. The declining 50-period moving average is acting as resistance.