iFOREX Daily Analysis : July 30,2018

Published 07/30/2018, 07:10 AM

The US Dollar traded overall slightly lighter against other major currencies, as the US Dollar Index (USDX) closed 0.13% lower on Friday.

Gold further declined and closed now for the third consecutive week lower. Oil traded also lower as trading issues especially between the US and China are still unresolved and are seen as a risk to global growth.

Stock indices traded mostly lower on Friday, especially the tech index NASDAQ after disappointing earnings from Twitter and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum traded moderately lower over the weekend, while Bitcoin managed to stay above the $8,000 threshold. A recent survey by the US bank Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) revealed that one in four investors is intrigued by Bitcoin products but has no intentions of buying any such products in the near future.

On Monday the European Commission publishes data on Economic Sentiment, Industrial Confidence and Consumer Confidence. In Germany the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released. In the US, the Pending Home Sales Index will be released. In the Asian trading session on Tuesday, Japan publishes its Unemployment and Industrial Production data.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD traded lower on Friday, with the French GDP reported lower than the previous level at +1.7% y/y (previous +2.1%) for the second quarter, while the Consumer Manufactured Goods Consumption in France was also lower at +0.3% m/m (expected +0.4%) for June. Italian Producers Prices (PPI) were meanwhile also showing slower growth in June with result of +0.3% m/m.

On Monday the European Commission publishes data on Economic Sentiment, Industrial Confidence and Consumer Confidence. In Germany the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released. In the US, the Pending Home Sales Index will be released.

On Tuesday and Wednesday the US Federal Reserve will meet and widely expected to affirm its stance on rising rates, with markets expecting a further rate hike in September.

EUR/USD Chart
Pivot:1.1635Support:1.16351.1621.16Resistance:1.1671.16951.1715Scenario 1:long positions above 1.1635 with targets at 1.1670 & 1.1695 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.1635 look for further downside with 1.1620 & 1.1600 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bullish.

USD/CNH

The Chinese Yuan further declined on Friday and Monday, reaching a new 13-months low, as analysts expect the currency further to decline against the Dollar of the ongoing trade tensions. The decline comes as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the midpoint rate and announced an easing of credit conditions.

The IMF meanwhile criticized the unsustainably high credit growth in China, while also attesting that the currency is fairly valued against the Dollar.

On Tuesday in China the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI are due to be released. On Wednesday the Caixin Manufacturing PMI and on Friday the Caixin Services PMI numbers will be published. The following week Trade Balance and inflation data is due.

USD/CNH ChartPivot:6.8245Support:6.82456.80136.7876Resistance:6.88556.89926.913Scenario 1:the upside prevails as long as 6.8245 is support.Scenario 2:the downside breakout of 6.8245 would call for 6.8013 and 6.7876.Comment:the RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the pair is trading above both its 20 and 50 MAs (respectively at 6.8310 and 6.8283).

WTI Oil

Oil traded lower on Friday as no resolution for the US-Chinese trade standoff appears in sight, which could lead to a downturn in global growth and thus also affect demand for oil.

The US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count added 3 operating oil rigs over the past week, reaching 861 operating rigs for the US. This is still below the recent record of 863 operating oil rigs. The limited capacities of oil pipelines, especially in the Permian oil region, could be a factor affecting the growth.

On Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures, followed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

WTI Oil Chart
Pivot:69.25Support:68.768.2567.85Resistance:69.2569.769.9Scenario 1:short positions below 69.25 with targets at 68.70 & 68.25 in extension.Scenario 2:above 69.25 look for further upside with 69.70 & 69.90 as targets.Comment:the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line. The declining 50-period moving average is acting as resistance.

US Tech 100

Mixed earnings results led to the US equity indices closing lower on Friday. Especially the tech index NASDAQ (US Tech 100) was under pressure as some tech companies’ earnings calls severely disappointed investors, such as Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) (-0.69%) and Twitter (-20.55%).

After the disastrous trading session on Thursday for Facebook, where the stock lost almost a fifth of its value, Twitter closed also significantly weakened on Friday. Twitter had the worst trading day since 2014, despite earnings reaching expected results and revenue at $711 million exceeding expectations, as investors focused on the fall in active user numbers and issues the company is facing with the European GDPR data protection regulation.

Stock prices of the TV broadcaster CBS (-6.14%) further declined in after-hours trading after a publication of alleged harassment charges against its CEO.

Semiconductor designer and manufacturer Cypress (+6.11%) traded significantly higher, after earnings for Q2 beat estimates and the earnings seen last year.

The earnings season continues with companies such as Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) publishing earnings on Monday, BP (LON:BP), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Procter & Gamble, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Baidu on Tuesday and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Square (NYSE:SQ) on Wednesday.

US Tech 100 Chart
Pivot: 7323 Support: 7204.75 7159 7103 Resistance: 7323 7365 7395 Scenario 1: short positions below 7323.00 with targets at 7204.75 & 7159.00 in extension. Scenario 2: above 7323.00 look for further upside with 7365.00 & 7395.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI has broken down its 30 level.

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