The US Dollar traded mixed against other currencies, however the basket of the US Dollar Index (USDX) showed a strengthening of the greenback by 0.38%. The Pound (GBP) fell for the first time in two weeks below the 1.40 level after disappointing UK PMI Services at 51.7 (expected) 54.0. The Turkish Lira (TRY) dropped to a new low against the Dollar with the USD/TRY for the first time reaching above 4.05. Analysts are worried about the monetary policies, handling the high inflation, as Turkish President Erdogan has criticized the recent interest rate hike by the Turkish central bank.
Gold fell to a weekly low as the US is indicating some readiness for talks with China, despite the US President Trump’s verbal attacks and threatening of imposing significant tariffs earlier this week.
Equities continued a gradual recovery and all four of the so-called FANGs – Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) (+2.80); Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) (+2.80%), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) (+1.57%), Google/Alphabet (+0.14%) – managed to close on the upside.
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies continued to struggle but were overall only slightly lower on Thursday, compared to the losses on Wednesday. Some analysts mention the tax season in the US as one contributing factor for the decline, assuming that some crypto coin traders would need to sell their crypto assets in order to pay their tax liabilities.
On Friday both Canada and the US will publish key employment figures, with the NFP report from the US oftentimes receiving particular attention.
The EUR/USD extended its losses and traded at a one month low on Thursday. German Manufacturers' Orders data was significantly below expectations at +0.3% m/m (expected +2.0%). Data from the European Union was overall also worse than expected with the Services PMI at 54.9 (expected 55.0) and Retail Sales at +0.1% m/m in February (expected +0.6%). US data was however also not as expected as the Trade Balance Deficit further extended to $-57.6B (expected $-56.7B) and Jobless New Claims rose to 242 thousand (expected 230 thousand).
On Friday Germany and Spain publish their respective Industrial Production figures and France is set to release its Merchandise Trade data.
Pivot: 1.2255 Support: 1.2215 1.2195 1.2165Resistance: 1.2255 1.229 1.231 Scenario 1: positions below 1.2255 with targets at 1.2215 & 1.2195 in extension. Scenario 2: above 1.2255 look for further upside with 1.2290 & 1.2310 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
WTI Oil
Oil traded higher for the third consecutive day as fears about a trade war reduced, following indications that the US still would be interesting in talks with China. The prospect of possible additional sanctions by the US against Iran and Venezuela, drove expectations that this might lead supply disruptions in these two oil rich countries.
The US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, to be released on Friday, will show the latest numbers in operating oil rigs in the United States.
Pivot: 62.7 Support: 62.7 62.1 61.6Resistance: 64.15 64.9 65.4 Scenario 1: long positions above 62.70 with targets at 64.15 & 64.90 in extension. Scenario 2: below 62.70 look for further downside with 62.10 & 61.60 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Gold
Gold traded lower on Thursday close to the low seen in the previous week. 10-Year US Treasury Notes reached meanwhile the highest level seen in April. It is to some extent assumed that in general, higher yields on US Treasury Notes, which are just as gold seen as safe-haven assets, lead to falling gold prices as the spread between those bonds and non-interest bearing gold widens.
The demand for safe-haven assets could have also been impacted as the new leader of the US National Economic Council mentioned a possible deal on trade with China, easing concerns about an out of control trade war.
On Friday key US job market data, such as the NFP is due for release.
Pivot: 1331 Support: 1321.5 1319 1317Resistance: 1331 1335 1338.5 Scenario 1: short positions below 1331.00 with targets at 1321.50 & 1319.00 in extension. Scenario 2: above 1331.00 look for further upside with 1335.00 & 1338.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
US 500
Equities continued to recover but at a slower pace than on Wednesday. Basic material stocks (US Basic Materials ETF +1.78%) were some of the best performing on Thursday, while chip makers (US Semiconductors ETF -1.14%) closed with losses despite the overall positive sentiment. Micron (-6.71%) was trading lower, by now erasing about all gains seen in March, after the UBS gave a negative outlook on the chip industry citing a falling gap between growth in inventories and revenues. Tesla’s (+6.31%) incredible recovery is attributed by some analysts on improving production figures.
On Friday the much awaited Nonfarm-Payroll (NFP) will be released, together with Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Work Week numbers and later data on Consumer Credit.
Pivot: 2641 Support: 2641 2617 2600 Resistance: 2679.5 2713 2737 Scenario 1: long positions above 2641.00 with targets at 2679.50 & 2713.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2641.00 look for further downside with 2617.00 & 2600.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.