EUR/JPY was holding the longer term 50% Fibonacci at 124.30/25 so I was wrong not to buy here! The pair beat minor resistance at 125.60/70 for the next target and strong resistance at 126.40/50. However, the strongest resistance today is at 126.90/127.10. Shorts need stops above 127.50.
Holding strong resistance at 126.40/50 this morning targeted 15.70/60. If we continue lower, look for 125.00 before a retest of the longer term 50% Fibonacci at 124.30/25.
EUR/USD meets strong resistance at 1.0975/95. Shorts need stops above 1.1015. A break higher meets very strong resistance at 1.1070/90. Shorts need stops above 1.1110. Holding below 1.0910 keeps the pressure on for 1.0860/50 before a retest of important 5 year trend line support at 1.0820/00.
However, we also have 37 year trendline support at 107.50/00. Yes, you read that right—37 years, dating back to 1985!!! Most of you were probably not even born yet. (2 years later I started trading!!)
If this level were to break, it would only be the start of the EUR/USD collapse. Initially, we target 104.000/103.50, then 102.00/101.70. If this level breaks, we are likely to fall even faster than we have over the past month.
GBP/USD best support was revised a little lower to 1.3150/20 (from the weekly chart). Longs need stops below 1.3090. A sustained break lower is a very significant longer term sell signal. Initially we target 1.300, then 1.3010/00 and 1.2980/60. Longs at 1.3150/20 target 1.3175/85 then first resistance at 1.3220/30. We should struggle to beat this level here initially, but shorts may be too risky. If we continue higher, look for strong resistance at 1.3300/20.
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