- BTC hold above 87k and the 200 SMA
- April 2 will provide more detail on the magnitude of reciprocal tariffs
- BTC sees net inflows for an 8th consecutive day
- Whales accumulate, but on-chain p&l decrease
- Bitcoin technical analysis
Bitcoin continues to hold above 87k and the key 200 SMA, as the recovery from 77k and the 2025 low persists. However, signs of caution are starting to show, limiting further gains for now.
The price remains 20% from its record high but has staged a +10% recovery from the March low, suggesting a pause in selling pressure. Yet, despite the recent recovery, the mood remains cautious, which is preventing further gains. Trump’s latest announcement of 25% trade tariffs on all autos and auto parts entering the US unnerved the market, although the risk-off mood was short-lived, with risk assets such as crypto and US stocks steadying after a move lower yesterday.
Attention is firmly focused on April 2 Liberation Day, when Trump is expected to implement reciprocal tariffs; however, the extent of these tariffs remains unclear. Optimism that the scope of these reciprocal tariffs may be less far-reaching than initially feared helped spur the recovery to 87k. However, traders are now waiting for more clarity, and this uncertainty could keep investors on the sidelines until next week. Less severe tariffs could spark the next leg higher to 90k and above, while more aggressive trade tariffs could pull the price of risk assets lower.
The US core PCE, released on Friday, will also be another data point to monitor. Although inflation remains relevant, it is less so than risk in the near term. This also explains why safe-haven gold is trading at record highs.
ETF Demand Returns and On-Chain Data Remain Mixed
Bitcoin ETFs are seeing signs of demand returning. BTC ETFs have experienced net inflows for eight consecutive days, following weeks of net outflows, suggesting that sentiment is shifting. Should ETF inflows continue to gain traction, this could support Bitcoin’s price higher.
On-chain data indicates trends of whale accumulation, which could reinforce a bullish narrative. Forty-eight new Bitcoin wallets have surpassed 100 BTC, indicating a growing number of large-scale investors. Rising whale numbers are often considered a sign of confidence in the long-term outlook.
Similarly, another key demographic, Bitcoin miners, have also been holding tight and not showing signs of significant selling. Bitcoin miner reserves have grown from under $84,000 on March 6 to $98,000 on March 26.
However, Glassnode data indicates indecision as on-chain profit and loss events decrease in magnitude. This points to a weaker demand profile, but it also reflects reduced sell-side pressure. Furthermore, the report reveals that short-term holders (STHs) continue to bear the brunt of losses while long-term holders (LTHs) keep generating profits.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin recovered from the 77k 2025 low, rising above the key 200 SMA resistance. However, the RSI is neutral, hovering around 50, indicating indecision. BTC has so far failed to rise above its multi-month falling trendline.
Buyers will need to rise above 88.7k, the falling trendline, and the weekly high to extend the recovery towards 90k. Above here, 95k comes into focus.
Failure to rise above the failing trendline could see the price test the support of the 200 SMA at 85.2k. A break below here brings 80k back into focus.
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