CNH
Although the US willing to suspend the next round of tariffs ahead of President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi, too many other tensions remain in play. USD/CNH remained better bid but ran into waves of selling at 6.89 but the “biddish tone” suggests traders continue gingerly buying G-20 risk premium through the yuan.
Convex appeal
Speaking of which, Risk sentiment hasn't been snuffed out, but unlike the stampede into risk assets last week, not only has the dust settled but there are signs that market is taking on some risk insurance by entering some of the more convex and liquid hedges against a protracted trade war in case premiums blow out next week. So, this too is damping sentiment as trade war uncertainty remain high, the risk of an actual war with Iran remains elevated and adding the FOMC policy uncertainty to the mix, it does nothing to soothe investors nerves.
Euro
The US dollar is trading better but running into the markets current proclivity to buy EUR on dips as the spike in United States 10-Year yields was relatively short-lived.
However, currency trader will probably respect the 200 DMA which is coming in at 1.1346, so provided we trade north of that line in the sand the bullish technical backdrop for the Euro remains entrenched.
But the Fed shapeshifter act is flushing some weaker long euro positions but the lengths if specs long euro it not that big, so the impact has been muted so far, but the Euro could sell off more aggressively on a fall below the 200dma
Rupiah
Indonesia finance minister said the economy would probably expand at a slower pace than previously forecast, and that she would be happy if the central bank lowered interest rates to help stoke economic growth. Applying a bit of pressure to the BI compounding that from the recent day. No surprise as the messaging from officials has been consistent.
Ringgit
Completely ignoring higher oil prices, the Ringgit is trading weaker on the back of the strong USD but also getting weighted down by the uncertainty about the G-20 outcome
The weaker yuan is not helping sentiment either given the Ringgit tight correlation, but this is a more defensive position rather than anything else
Oil
The late-day draws showing up in the API report; this is a super strong signal for the energy market and those hoping to buy on dips mind find themselves chasing for topside exposure as there are predictably few sellers so far.