On the corn front the futures traded lower in Tuesday’s action with rain estimates changing in the weather modules for South America. Expectations of heavy rains, not quite but should be adequate. Joe Vaclavik, president of Standard Grain brokerage, said, “Brazil is going to catch some rain. It’s not going to be what they normally see this time of year, but it is not a flown-blown drought either. Commodity funds still hold sizable net-long positions in CBOT corn and soybean futures. Both markets will be prone to bouts of long-liquidation as the calendar year winds down.
We will be watching moves by China purchasing U.S. agriculture crops and products, South American weather, Export Sales tomorrow, and sales as we move closer to the USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Dec. 10. In the overnight electronic session, the March corn is currently trading at 419 ½ which is 1 ¼ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 420 ¾ to 416 ¾.
On the ethanol front we had big news on an otherwise dull trading day for this market as it tallied the woes of the corn and crude oil prices. The Renewable Fuels Association revealed that all 2021 automobiles are explicitly approved by the manufacturer to use E15 gasoline. Far fewer models are being offered as flex fuel vehicles (FFV’s) capable of operating on fuel blends containing up to 85% ethanol. Only two automakers – Ford and General Motors- are offering FFV’s. In model year 2021 with 11 only models available for FFT’s in 2021, and with five of those models available to only fleet purchasers. This is a positive sign we may be turning the Covid corner. In the overnight electronic session, the January ethanol posted a trade at 1.350 which is unchanged. The market is currently showing 1 bid at 1.305 and 3 offers at 1.350 with Open Interest at 42 contracts.
On the crude oil front many top stories pressured the crude oil prices with a cheaper US Dollar, OPEC+ uncertainty, API bearish inventories and Norway announcing an end to production cuts Dec. 31. These bearish points have traders grappling with the future, while the stock market sees better days ahead in 2021 as far as a vaccine distributed and getting the public to engage a little more and get close to normal getting our lives back to as normal as we can make it.
This morning’s EIA should be interesting numbers. Were these barrels in some storage after a tumultuous Hurricane Season. We will get an education at 9:30 A.M. CST. Also, the three most influential members of OPEC+ are all disagreeing on how to proceed with production cuts. It will take delicate negotiations to reach some sort of an agreement which will take time and we do not want the market flooded prematurely. The time invested will be like still counting U.S. Presidential Election ballots a month later. In the overnight electronic session, the January crude oil is currently trading at 4452 which is 3 tics lower. The trading range has been 4494 to 4410.
On the natural gas front this industry and commodity will be known as the climate change answer to lower carbon dioxide and reduce methane gas emissions that will be a remarkable venue and should satisfy all parties involved ushering in a new era of energy independence and safety to the environment with reliance to utilize this form of energy for decades to come. In the overnight electronic session, the January natural gas is currently trading at 2.894 which is .014 higher. The trading range has been 2.895 to 2.851.