There are two main figures in Sweden next week. First, we expect March inflation - both CPI and CPIF - to print 0.2 percentage points above the Riksbanks forecasts (at 0.2% and 1.0% y/y respectively). Second, money market players' inflation expectations (monthly Prospera) might edge higher as inflation has moved higher in January and February.
In Norway there are no major releases in the coming week, but we will be keeping an eye on the export data for March. One key factor in our view that growth in the Norwegian economy will hold up despite lower oil investment is that a combination of stronger global growth and a weaker krone will boost traditional exports.
In Norway we like to position for higher rates in the short-end of the money market curve as we think the market has priced a too aggressive easing path from Norges Bank. We also look for a further flattening of the NOK swap curve 2s5s, 5s10s, and 2s10s.
There are no market movers in Denmark in the coming week. Hence, focus remains on EUR/DKK, which continues to trade above the central-parity at 7.46038. A level that normally would trigger intervention from the Danish Central Bank, but no intervention was seen in March. It might reflect that the upward pressure on EUR/DKK is considered temporary due to the Danish "dividend season" that is over in a few weeks.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below