Before we talk sugar on our technical Monday, here is a reminder of the summary I wrote over the weekend concerning the Economic Modern Family.
Summary Update in BOLD
- SPY and QQQ show no signs of recession and might have bottomed out needing a bit more follow-through - SPY GOT FOLLOW-THRU BUT AND NOW BRUSHING THE 50-WMA. QQQ WEAKER and STILL UNDER THE 50-WMA, Through 20,500 in the futs, looks better.
- IWM if holds above the 200-WMA and the 23-month MA, could be a low-risk investment. If fails, it would be hard to remain bullish. - SO FAR SO GOOD.
- XRT is the trouble spot-watch this carefully. With an inside day Friday, this fits the formula for a bottom ONLY if XRT clears and closes above 68.40 Monday. The same is true with IYT. - XRT IYT JUST MIGHT HAVE PULLED IT OFF-ahead of FOMC.
- SMH, like QQQ and SPY, shows no sign of recession, but needs to keep going. SMH OK DAY-WITH NVDA CONFERENCE AND THREAT OF TARIFFS ON CHIPS
- Fins KRE can move, and Biotech is on the fence. TALK OF COMMERCIAL LOAN TROUBLE KRE HOLDING THOUGH. IBB LOOKS PROMISING
And now as a reminder of my Inflation Trifecta metals had a great day too.
- Silver to Gold-gold remains an outperformer but if that changes, we look like stagflation, possibly a speed bump to recession.
- The Dollar-While the dollar is in contraction, it is holding 103-should that fail, we see 100 next
- Sugar futures-Sugar is starting to rally, and a move over 20 cents a pound a warning-not to mention corn and wheat trying to base.
What about that sugar chart? 
May sugar futures close at $19.97s.
If you look at the chart, the horizontal line at $20s stretches back from June 2024.
We see a move and close above that level a strong breakout with room to $21s or higher.
Looking at the ETF 
Teucrium Sugar Fund (NYSE:CANE) is the ETF for sugar.
However, it does give investors a way to take advantage of major moves in the futures market.
Currently, CANE is above all the moving averages and the January 6-month calendar range.
It is outperforming the benchmark.
And the momentum is about to get a test to see if it can plow above the Bollinger bands.
12.76 is the high from February 2025.
More important than the rally, just might just be the reason it could rally.
An excerpt: March 6, 2024
Sugar and inflation can burgeon because of:
- Supply chain and geopolitics
- Government debt and interest on debt
- Government spending
- Weather
- A softening of monetary policy that adds liquidity.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) 575 big resistance 560 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 202 support 215 resistance
- Dow (DIA) 415 support 421 resistance
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 485 resistance
- Regional banks (KRE) 54 support 58 resistance
- Semiconductors (SMH) 222 support 245 overhead resistance
- Transportation (IYT) 65.00 pivotal
- Biotechnology (IBB) 135 back to support 140 to clear
- Retail (XRT) 70 now resistance to clear