GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.56; (P) 171.23; (R1) 171.77;
As noted before, the current development suggests medium term topping at 175.36. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for 169.53 support to confirm this bearish case. On the upside, break of 172.60 is needed to signal short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) continued to lose upside momentum. This could be seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. And, weekly MACD continued to trend down. The acceleration in fall from 175.36 affirms the reversal case. Focus is now on 169.53 key support level. Decisive break will confirm topping and would bring deeper fall back to 55 weeks EMA (now at 165.41) and below.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.04; (P) 136.48; (R1) 137.25;
Intraday bias in the EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment first. With 138.02 intact, deeper decline is mildly in favor for 135.50 key support level. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. Nonetheless, break of 138.02 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
