GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: October 09, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.73; (P) 125.90; (R1) 126.67

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 127.79 is the third leg of the correction from 128.82 and would extend to lower channel support (now at now at 123.54) before completion. On the upside, above 127.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 128.82. Break will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 118.82 and should target 133.48 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. But this is far from being certain. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 100.97; (P) 101.73; (R1) 102.35

Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 102.79 is the third leg of the consolidation from 103.86 and could extend through 99.63 support. Though, in that case, we'd expect strong support from 97.98/99.18 support zone to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 102.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 103.86. Break will confirm resumption of recent recent rally from 94.11.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole downtrend from 169.96 (3008) has completed at 99.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Focus is now on 111.43 key resistance level. Break will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium-term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 99.52 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 99.52 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.