GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: October 04, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.81; (P) 126.14; (R1) 126.48

The break of 126.69 minor resistance argues that pull back from 128.82 might be finished at 125.34 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for a test on 128.82 resistance. Rise from 118.82 is expected to continue and break of 128.82 will confirm resumption for 133.48 resistance next. Below 125.34 will turn focus back to 124.41 support. But after all, we'll stay bullish as long as 124.41 holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. But this is far from being certain. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="600" height="600">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 100.84; (P) 101.15; (R1) 101.60

As noted before, the pull back from 103.86 could have completed at 99.63 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally should be seen to retest 103.86 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rally from 94.11. Below 100.72 minor support will turn bias neutral. But we'll stay bullish as long as 99.63 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole down trend from 169.96 (3008) has completed at 99.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Focus is now on 111.43 key resistance level. Break will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium-term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 99.52 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 99.52 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.
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EUR/JPY H4" title="EUR/JPY H4" width="600" height="600">