GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: Novemebr 23, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.90; (P) 131.61; (R1) 132.15

GBP/JPY jumped to as high as 132.32 and lost some upside momentum after hitting upper channel resistance. Though, bias remains on the upside as long as 130.55 minor support holds and current rise is expected to continue. Sustained trading above the channel will indicate acceleration and target a test on 133.48 resistance next. Though, below 130.55 will indicate short-term topping and would bring pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 129.57) before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="600" height="600">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.78; (P) 106.18; (R1) 106.65

EUR/JPY jumped to as high as 106.58 but is losing momentum ahead of 61.8% projection of 94.11 to 104.58 from 100.32 at 106.79. Though, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 105.54 minor support holds. Sustained break of 106.79 will target 111.43 resistance, which is close to 100% projection level. Meanwhile, below 105.54 will suggest short-term topping and bring pull back, possibly to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 104.06) before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Break of 111.43 resistance will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 100.14 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 100.14 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.
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EUR/JPY" title="EUR/JPY" width="600" height="600">