GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: November 22, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.52; (P) 131.10; (R1) 132.20

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 131.88 so far and hit mentioned upper channel resistance. Intraday bias remains on the upside and sustained trading above the channel will indicate acceleration and target a test on 133.48 resistance next. On the downside, below 130.55 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging anther rise.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="600" height="600">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.98; (P) 104.37; (R1) 105.09

EUR/JPY reaches as high as 105.83 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally from 94.11 is expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 94.11 to 104.58 from 100.32 at 106.79 next. Break will bring stronger rally to 111.43 resistance, which is close to 100% projection level. On the downside, below 105.05 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Break of 111.43 resistance will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 100.14 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 100.14 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.
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EUR/JPY" title="EUR/JPY" width="600" height="600">