GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: November 19, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.05; (P) 129.39; (R1) 129.65

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 129.64 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rise from 118.82 and should target upper channel resistance (now at 131.20) next. On the downside, below 128.25 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 125.67 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.
GBP/JPY H4" title="GBP/JPY H4" width="926" height="610">
GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="926" height="610">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.44; (P) 103.77; (R1) 103.98

EUR/JPY edged higher to 104.09 but lacked follow through buying. Intraday bias remains neutral for consolidations. First. Downside should be contained by 102.00 minor support. Above 103.99 will target 104.58 and break there will confirm rise resumption for 61.8% projection of 94.11 to 104.58 from 100.32 at 106.79 next.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Break of 111.43 resistance will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 100.14 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 100.14 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.
EUR/JPY H4" title="EUR/JPY H4" width="926" height="610">
EUR/JPY" title="EUR/JPY" width="926" height="610">