GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: November 14, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.56; (P) 126.09; (R1) 126.52

With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 127.03 minor resistance will argue that that correction from 129.64 has completed already. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the upside for a test on 129.60/64 resistance first. Meanwhile, below 125.67 will turn focus back to 124.72 support. As noted before, as long as 124.72 support holds, rebound from 118.82 is still in favor to continue. However, sustained break of 124.72 will argue that whole rebound from 118.81 is completed and will turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 100.35; (P) 100.80; (R1) 101.27

With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. We'll stay near term bullish as long as 100.14 support holds and expect rise from 94.11 to resume later. Break of 102.17 resistance will indicate that correction from 104.58 is finished and target a retest on this high. However, sustained break of 100.14 support will dampen our bullish view and argue that whole rebound from 94.11 is finished at 104.58 after missing 61.8% retracement of 111.43 to 104.58. In such case, deeper decline would be seen to retest 94.11 low.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole down trend from 169.96 (2008) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Break of 111.43 resistance will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 100.14 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 100.14 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.