GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: November 12, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.68; (P) 126.57; (R1) 127.20

Deeper fall could be seen in GBP/JPY. Yet, as long as 124.72 support holds, rebound from 118.82 is still in favor to continue. Above 127.03 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for a test on 129.60/64 resistance first. However, sustained break of 124.72 will argue that whole rebound from 118.81 is completed and will turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and might target 133.48 and above. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout. We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="587" height="680">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 100.37; (P) 101.05; (R1) 101.69

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside and deeper fall could still be seen. But after all, as long as 100.14 support holds, we'd still treat such decline as a correction only. Break of 102.17 support turned resistance will indicate that the correction is completed and turn bias back to the side for 104.58 resistance. However, sustained break of 100.14 support will dampen our bullish view and argue that whole rebound from 94.11 is finished at 104.58 after missing 61.8% retracement of 111.43 to 104.58. In such case, deeper decline would be seen to retest 94.11 low.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole downtrend from 169.96 (3008) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Break of 111.43 resistance will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 100.14 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 100.14 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.
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EUR/JPY" title="EUR/JPY" width="587" height="680">