GPB/JPY and EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: March 29, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.89; (P) 131.81; (R1) 132.60

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range below 133.48 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading. Another fall cannot be ruled out as consolidation extends. But in that case, downside is expected to be contained by 126.54 support and bring rebound. Rise from 117.29 is expected to resume sooner or later and break of 133.48 should target a test on 140.02 key resistance level next.

In the bigger picture, recent development argues that choppy decline from 163.05 is completed at 116.83 already. Focus remains on 140.02 and sustained break there will confirm this bullish case. More importantly, this will also signal completion of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09. In such case, stronger rise should be seen back to retest on 163.05 resistance next. Though, failure below 140.02 resistance will indicate that GBP/JPY is merely in sideway trading pattern between 116.83 and 140.02.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.86; (P) 110.38; (R1) 110.91

EUR/JPY remains bounded in range below 111.43 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But in that case, downside is expected to be contained by 105.64 support and bring rebound. Rally from 97.03 is expected to resume sooner or later. Decisive break of 111.57 resistance will confirm that fall from 123.31 has completed and should target a test on this key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the case of trend reversal in EUR/JPY is starting to build up and 97.03 should be a medium term bottom. Break of 111.57 will affirm this case and should at least push EUR/JPY for a test on 123.31 resistance. Break there will argue that whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is completed and reversed. Though, failure to take out 123.31 and reversal from there will likely bring some sideway trading between 97.03/123.31 in medium term.