GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: January 3, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.73; (P) 141.74; (R1) 142.93

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 118.82 is still in progress, with strong momentum, and should target next medium-term retracement level at 145.39. On the downside, below 139.50 is needed to signal short-term topping. Otherwise, the near-term outlook stays bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) indicates that whole medium-term fall fro 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long-term downtrend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, a medium-term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.21; (P) 115.10; (R1) 116.02

EUR/JPY lost some upside momentum with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line and intraday bias is turned neutral. But near term outlook stays bullish as long as 113.18 minor support holds. Current current rally from 100.32, which is part of the rise from 94.11, should target 161.8% projection of 94.11 to 104.58 from 100.32 at 117.26 next. though, break of 113.18 will indicate short-term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 111.43 resistance should have confirmed long-term trend reversal in EUR/JPY. That is, whole downtrend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. A medium-term rally is now expected that heads back to 123.31 (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08) and above. And, we'll stay bullish as long as 104.58 resistance turned support holds.
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