Daily Pivots:
(S1) 135.45; (P) 135.91; (R1) 136.39
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment and current rally is expected to continue to next key resistance level at 140.02. On the downside, below 134.22 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 132.44 resistance turned support is needed to signal short-term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish in the cross.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we'd like to maintain that price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) are corrective in nature so far. Rise from 118.82 could be the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 and is still in progress. After all, the likely scenario is that we'll see more range trading between 116.83 and 140.02 (50% retracement of 163.05 to 116.83 at 139.94) ahead, before an eventual downside breakout.
We'll favor this view as long as 140.02 resistance holds. Nonetheless, sustained break of 140.02 will indicate that rise from 116.83 is at least a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05 and thus stronger medium-term rise would then be seen back to this level.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.83; (P) 110.50; (R1) 111.08
EUR/JPY faced some resistance ahead of 111.43 ad retreated mildly. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained by 105.97/107.95 support zone and bring another rally. Break of 111.43 will have larger bullish implications and should 161.8% projection of 94.11 to 104.58 from 100.32 at 117.26.
In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole downtrend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. The sustained break above 55 weeks EMA affirmed this view. Break of 111.43 resistance will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium-term rise to 123.31 (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08) and above. And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 104.58 resistance turned support holds.