GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: April 30, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.87; (P) 130.81; (R1) 131.47

Intra-day bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 129.83 minor support intact, another rise remains mildly in favor. Above 131.79 will target 133.48 first. Break will resume whole rally from 117.29 and target 140.02 key resistance. Though, break of 129.83 will indicate completion of the recovery from 127.10. In that case, bias will be flipped back to the downside for 127.10 and below to extend the fall from 133.48.

In the bigger picture, with 126.54 support intact, rise from 117.29 should still be in progress. Current development is still in line with the view that choppy decline from 163.05 is finished at 116.83 already. We'd favor further rise to 140.02 key resistance level next. A decisive break there will confirm this bullish case and target 163.05 key resistance next. Nonetheless, another fall and break of 126.54 will put focus back to 116.83 low instead.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="911" height="662">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.82; (P) 106.65; (R1) 107.14

As noted before, current development suggests that rebound from 104.61 is already finished at 108.00. Intra-day bias is mildly on the downside for a test on 104.61 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole decline from 111.43 and should target 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next. On the upside, though, above 107.65 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 104.61 towards 111.43 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether down trend from 169.96 has completed at 97.03 and the picture remains unclear. There was a loss of medium-term downside momentum as seen in convergence condition in weekly MACD. But rebound from 97.03 lacked sustainable strength to break through 111.57 yet. We'll stay neutral first. Note that firstly, while another fall cannot be ruled out yet, the break of 97.03 would be marginal. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 111.57 should raise much odds for the case that EUR/JPY's trend is reversing.
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