GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Outlook: April 19, 2012

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.09; (P) 129.76; (R1) 130.85

As noted before, choppy decline from 133.48 should have finished at 127.10 after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 117.29 to 133.48. Intraday bias remains on the upside for a test on 133.48 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rise from 117.29 has resumed and should target 140.02 key resistance level next. On the downside, though, below 129.11 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 127.10 instead.

In the bigger picture, recent pull back in GBP/JPY was relatively shallower than other yen crosses. Indeed, 126.54 support is intact so far and thus, retaining the bullish case that rise from 116.83 is still in progress. In other words, favor is mildly on the case that 116.83 is at least a medium term bottom. Though, we'd still prefer to see decisive break of 133.48 resistance to confirm upside momentum and pave the way to 140.02 key resistance level. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first and expect some more consolidative trading below 133.48 first.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="640" height="289">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.17; (P) 106.52; (R1) 106.97

EUR/JPY's recovery from 104.61 extends further today and the break of 107.09 suggests that a short term bottom is in place with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. The choppy decline from 111.43 might be finished too. Intraday bias is back on the upside and the current rebound would extend further to retest 111.43/57 resistance zone. On the downside, below 104.61, however, will extend the fall from 111.43 towards 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next.

In the bigger picture, the rebound form 97.03 was disappointing as it failed to take out 111.57 resistance. Indeed, EUR/JPY also failed to sustain above 55 weeks EMA and is back under this level. While the downtrend from 169.96 has been showing loss of downside momentum in bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, there is not enough evidence to warrant a reversal yet. We'd possibly see a new low below 97.03 before EUR/JPY bottoms. 111.57 resistance remains the key level to determine whether EUR/JPY has bottomed.
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EUR/JPY" title="EUR/JPY" width="640" height="289">