GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Daily Currency Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.95; (P) 155.07; (R1) 156.02;

The GBP/JPY rose again today, but overall outlook is unchanged. Price action from 156.77 is viewed as a consolidation pattern. We'd expect strong resistance from 156.77 to limit upside to bring another fall inside the pattern. Below 154.13 will turn bias back to the downside for 150.47 support and below. However, sustained break of 156.77 will indicate larger rally resumption for 160 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place at 156.77 on bearish divergence condition in the daily MACD. A deeper pull back could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 156.77 at 142.27 as consolidation from there extends. Strong support would likely be seen at 140.37 to bring a rebound, at least on the first attempt. Overall, we'd still expect a whole rise from 116.83 medium term bottom to resume later to 163.05 resistance, and above after completing the correction.

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GBP/JPY" width="600" height="600">



EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.86; (P) 130.66; (R1) 131.44;

The EUR/JPY recovers strongly toda,y but stays below 132.42 and the intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall outlook is unchanged as the EUR/JPY is being bounded in consolidation pattern from 133.80. As long as 129.30 support holds, another rise could be seen. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 133.80 to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the consolidation from 133.80. A break of 129.30 will argue that the third leg has started and will turn bias to the downside. A further break of 127.96 should confirm and target 124.95 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 94.11 has topped out at 133.80 on bearish divergence condition in the daily MACD. Consolidation from there could extend with another fall to 55 weeks EMA (now at 121.76) and below. But, we'd expect strong support from 119.10 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 133.80 at 118.63) to contain downside. Considering the five wave structure of the rise from 94.11 we'd expect another medium term rally after completing the correction.

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EUR/JPY" width="600" height="600">