GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY Currency Outlook: September 06, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.54; (P) 155.98; (R1) 156.47;

As the 4 hours MACD crossed below the signal line, intraday bias in GBP/JPY has turned neutral first. As noted before, current price actions are viewed as part of the consolidation pattern from 156.77. We'd expect strong resistance below there to bring reversal to extend the pattern. Below 154.29 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 150.47 first. Break will target 147.61 and below. However, a sustained break of 156.77 will indicate a larger rally resumption for the 160 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place at 156.77 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. A deeper pull back could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 156.77 at 142.27 as consolidation from there extends. Strong support would likely be seen at 140.37 to bring rebound, at least on the first attempt. Overall, we'd still expect a whole rise from the 116.83 medium term bottom to resume later to the 163.05 resistance, and above after completing the correction.

GBP/JPY H4" width="600" height="600">
GBP/JPY" width="600" height="600">



EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.85; (P) 131.49; (R1) 131.97;

The 4 hours MACD crossed below the signal line and the intraday bias turned neutral first. With the 129.30 minor support intact, another rise remains in favor. But again, the EUR/JPY is still bounded in consolidation pattern from 133.80. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance below there to bring another fall to extend the pattern. On the downside, below 129.30 will turn bias back to the downside for 127.96 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 94.11 has topped out at 133.80 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Consolidation from there could extend with another fall to 55 weeks EMA (now at 121.12) and below. But, we'd expect strong support from the 119.10 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 133.80 at 118.63) to contain downside. Considering the five wave structure of the rise from 94.11, we'd expect another medium term rally after completing the correction.

EUR/JPY H4" width="600" height="600">
EUR/JPY" width="600" height="600">