GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.28; (P) 170.64; (R1) 171.05;
Outlook in the GBP/JPY is unchanged. Consolidation from 174.84 is still in progress with current decline likely as the third leg. Deeper fall is expected as long as 171.88 resistance holds. Break of 169.50 support will confirm this bearish case and target 167.77 and below. On the upside, break of 171.88 will mix up the outlook and turn focus back to 173.46 instead.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.75; (P) 139.00; (R1) 139.40;
With 139.87 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected in the EUR/JPY. Consolidation pattern from 145.68 is in the third leg and current fall should target 136.22 support. However, break of 139.87 will dampen this immediate bearish view and bring consolidations before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
