GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.50; (P) 171.78; (R1) 172.22;
The breach of 171.97 resistance dampened the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside. Further rise could be seen to 173.46 resistance. Overall, the consolidation pattern from 174.84 is still in progress. In case of further rally, strong resistance would be seen below 174.84 to bring reversal to extend the consolidation pattern. Meanwhile, below 169.53 will turn bias back to the downside the extend the fall from 173.46.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.52; (P) 139.73; (R1) 139.92;
The EUR/JPY lost some upside momentum after hitting 139.95. But further rise remains mildly in favor. A short term bottom was formed on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD at 137.97. Stronger rise should be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 140.21) and above. Overall, the consolidation pattern from 145.68 is still in progress. Even in case of further rise, strong resistance would likely be seen below 143.78 to bring another decline to extend the consolidations. On the downside, break of 137.97 will extend the fall from 143.78 towards 136.22.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
